Have lockdowns done more harm than good?

By Herbert Vego

EXCEPT for the presumption that community quarantines may have prevented a bigger wave of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the government-enforced lockdowns may have done more harm than good.

It has disabled a returning overseas Filipino worker (OFW) from regaining income lost during five months of “staying safe”. It’s because, having tested COVID-positive on July 23, the 27-year-old lady from a barangay in Antique had no choice but to undergo home quarantine, as did 17 other people who had attended her despedida party. Otherwise, she could have taken her July 29 flight to resume work in Dubai.

Now, would she rejoice that her second test a week later revealed a negative result?

No, because her case only proves the unreliability of the reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test.

As I was writing this yesterday, the World Health Organization (WHO) had listed a total number of 17,916,173 cases worldwide, of which 11,269,944 are recoveries and 685,971 deaths.

The WHO figures for the Philippines showed 98,232 total cases, 65,265 recoveries, and 2,039 deaths.

The Malacañang says our numbers could have skyrocketed had it not imposed either general community quarantine (GCQ) or enhanced community quarantine (ECQ). But who knows? That’s only a presumption.

The numbers look alarming until we realize that the 2,039 COVID-caused deaths in five months are a small percentage of the 110-million Philippine population. In fact, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority, an average of 1,587 Filipinos die of diseases and other causes daily – yes, daily!

We panic because the pandemic has earned the false notion of being “incurable” – the same reason why most governments worldwide have imposed massive lockdowns that restrict people’s travels and public exposures.

If it were incurable, then all victims could have died.

But we have also heard the poor express their fear of death not because of COVID but of hunger: “Hindi kami mamamatay sa virus; mamamatay kami sa gutom.” 

Would we not wake up one day to suffer worse woes than the disease that has afflicted only a fraction of one percent of the eight billion world population?

This leads us to the question: Have five months of lockdowns been worth the lives saved?

Unfortunately, we have no statistics on people who could have died of other diseases arising from hunger, malnutrition, stress and depression following the loss of millions of jobs and other means of livelihood. These factors diminish the capability of our immune system to beat the virus.

According to Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua, the business community stands to suffer P2.2 trillion in losses this year as firms either shut down or decelerate.

Could we not have saved the economy as well by simply social distancing, face masking and hand washing in accordance with the world-accepted view that coronavirus may only be transmitted by droplets spread from the carrier to the mouth, nose or eyes of another person?

Alas, we are afraid of even entering a barangay with a known COVID patient. Panic has caused us to discriminate patients and even their attending health workers. And the government does nothing to discourage this attitude.

On the contrary, the Department of Health (DOH) has shown itself erratic on whether asymptomatic cases, or those showing no symptoms like fever and cough, really contaminate. There was a time when Secretary Francisco Duque said in a Senate hearing that even the World Health Organization (WHO) could not confirm whether the asymptomatic, who are included in its odometer of confirmed cases, could spread coronavirus. Their “recovery” hinges on testing negative.

If he were not the most powerful politician in the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte could have been kicked out of office for “prescribing” gasoline as a disinfectant for protective face masks.

Worse, he wants us to “wait” for his perceived solution to the pandemic – a vaccine from China to be distributed for free to the poor by the military.

“China is looking for guinea pigs,” somebody posted on Facebook. “The Chinese would like to profit from the virus that they themselves spread. That’s insult added to injury.”

A joke going on is that the only durable product from China is the coronavirus disease, which originated in Wuhan, China in December 2019.

No wonder the local government units have taken up the cudgels for their own people. In Iloilo City, for instance, Mayor Jerry P. Treñas walked around the malls to demonstrate it’s safe to resume shopping while wearing masks and social distancing.

“We really have to start already reviving the economy,” he said, worried over the lack of shoppers. “If businesses close, workers will lose their jobs. We have to look for ways that can revive our economy.”

-oOo-

Our friend Ariel “Aye” Castañeda – head of Task Force I-Konek of MORE Power — waxed enthusiastic over “Oplan Kakas Jumpers”. It’s the joint drive of the company and the Iloilo City government aimed at dismantling “jumpers” installed by electricity thieves during the time of the previous distribution utility, Panay Electric Co. (PECO).

To prove its seriousness in this campaign, MORE Power has already filed criminal charges against recidivists for violation of the anti-pilferage law (RA 7832).

Low-load customers are only required to  produce four documents to apply for power connection at low cost, namely a barangay certification, a location diagram approved by City Hall, a government-issued ID and an undertaking of conformity by the lot owner.

Castañeda told us that his office processes as many as 1,000 new applications per day upon payment of a P2,500 bill deposit.

According to MORE Power president Roel Castro, some 30,000 illegal connections have driven up the systems losses which are actually paid for by legitimate consumers.

There are several syndicates in the city that sell illegal power connections. The MORE Power linemen who used to work for PECO have identified them.

Translated into wattage, illegal connections could account for as much as 20 megawatts (MW) of the 100 MW that Iloilo City consumes daily. They overload the transformers, cause pole fires and trip-offs that trigger unscheduled brownouts.

Elimination of illegal loads is just a small part of the company’s three-year modernization program, using the “looping system” that would provide backup power supply whenever its crew conducts preventive maintenance and repairs of the five substations in the city.