The Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) forecasts continued stability in electricity spot market prices throughout 2025, driven by strong supply growth and increasing renewable energy integration.
For the April 2025 billing period covering March 26 to April 25, system-wide average prices in the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) dropped to PHP 4.52 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), marking a 15.3 percent decrease from March’s PHP 5.34/kWh.
Regional spot prices also declined significantly, with Luzon averaging PHP 4.59/kWh (down 16.5 percent), Visayas PHP 4.52/kWh (down 17.6 percent), and Mindanao PHP 4.11/kWh (down 6.3 percent), indicating a broadly stable market despite rising electricity demand.
“Despite the growth in demand we see lower effective spot settlement prices, and that means we have a more stable supply compared to last year,” said Isidro Cacho, IEMOP Vice President for Trading Operations, during a press briefing.
According to IEMOP, system-wide supply reached 23,341 megawatts (MW) in April, a 9.7 percent increase year-over-year, while demand rose 7.8 percent to 19,011 MW.
In Luzon, supply surged to 16,558 MW (up 10.9 percent) against 13,330 MW demand (up 9.3 percent); Visayas recorded 3,001 MW supply (up 8.4 percent) versus 2,633 MW demand (up 5.0 percent); and Mindanao registered 3,782 MW supply (up 1.8 percent) with 3,048 MW demand (up 3.6 percent).
Cacho emphasized that the current supply margin is holding steady into May, offering hope for continued price stability.
“We are seeing ample supply. And we are seeing that same margin all throughout the month of May. So we expect the same level of prices that we are experiencing now. Hopefully we maintain that level of supply margin all throughout the year,” he said.
This trend is further supported by the anticipated commissioning of several renewable energy (RE) projects, which are expected to help meet growing demand while reinforcing supply security.
As of May 5, the Philippine Renewable Energy Market System (PREMS) Bulletin Board reported 179,715 Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) available for sale, each equivalent to one megawatt-hour of clean energy sourced from solar, hydro, and other renewables.
The volume of RECs highlights the growing contribution of renewables to WESM supply and aligns with the Department of Energy’s Renewable Portfolio Standards, which aim for 35 percent renewable energy in the power mix by 2030 and 50 percent by 2040.
Although renewable intermittency presents some challenges to the reserve market, IEMOP said grid reliability remains intact due to coordinated operations and sufficient reserve capacity.
The continued drop in spot market prices is a positive signal for distribution utilities and consumers, potentially translating to lower electricity bills in the months ahead despite seasonal demand increases.
