The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is set to forge ahead with finishing the Code of Conduct with China over the South China Sea (SCS) by 2021.
Vietnam’s goal for ASEAN to arrive at an agreement with China over the SCS during its 2020 term was hampered and will continue to be affected by the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic.
The Vietnamese government, led by Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, signaled at the beginning of their term, its move to gain the support of like-minded ASEAN countries to move together and steer ASEAN geopolitics to lessening China’s dominance over the SCS.
As Vietnam and some key ASEAN countries like Malaysia are filing protests in international venues like the UNGC, they are reminded of the Philippines’ historic move to bring the West Philippine Sea (WPS) dispute at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague.
The Court ruled in favor of the Philippines and declared that China’s questioned claim over the nine-dash-line had no legal basis.
That first such maritime-related case against China was filed by the Philippines in 2016 and its victory is seen now to be at the forefront of ASEAN’s challenge to China’s violation of sovereignty in the SCS.
The Code of Conduct to be drawn up between the ASEAN and China covers the disputed nine-dash-line waterway that reaches over 2,000 kilometers long.
According to the LA Times, more than USD3 trillion worth of goods transit the nine-dash-line waterway every year, making SCS one of the most contested regions in the world.
Some of the Philippines’ stake in the WPS dispute was estimated at USD10.6 trillion for a total of both oil and natural gas values and if including methanol, Justice Antonio Carpio estimates that this resource could fuel the Chinese economy for 130 years.
Fisheries, alone, could be valued at about USD15.8 billion.
Columnist Solita Collas-Monsod states that what President Duterte was able to wangle USD12 billion in both pledges and soft loans from his Beijing state visit, when compared to fisheries resources alone worth USD 15.8 billion, the Philippines can do it alone.
Other ASEAN member-countries have had a number of grievances against China’s intrusion into their respective SCS areas. It was recorded that Malaysia had a month-long confrontation with Chinese military vessels near two offshore blocks where Malaysian state-owned Petronas was drilling for oil and gas.
Indonesia’s experience within China’s so-called nine-dash-line involved a Chinese coast guard intruding into Jakarta’s EEZ.
Vietnam was a victim of harassment at its area within the nine-dash-line when a Chinese geological survey ship was deployed by Beijing to harass international drilling operations near Vanguard Bank, in the vicinity of Vietnam’s EEZ.
Vietnam, in particular, is said to be leaning towards security partnerships with major powers – Australia, Japan, India, the United Sates and with the UK and France as well.
A timely Code on Conduct will help de-escalate tensions in the SCS even as the United States is keen on maintaining a balance of power. A US Navy guided –missile destroyer recently ventured into the Paracel Islands area to challenge China’s claim of the SCS.
