By Francis Allan L. Angelo and Dolly Yasa
Iloilo and Negros Occidental, including the cities of Iloilo and Bacolod, are considered coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) “hotspots” by a group of professors analyzing COVID-19 data in the Philippines.
In its latest report published on Oct 12, 2020, the OCTA Research Group noted that the government might consider imposing stricter quarantine measures in some areas even if cases in the National Capital Region have been decreasing.
“Based on available data, the value of Rt (transmission rate) for the entire Philippines and in the NCR has been on a decelerating trend. But these positive trends are not irreversible and significant efforts have to be undertaken by all stakeholders to sustain,” according to the group composed of professors from the University of the Philippines, the University of Santo Tomas, and Providence College in the United States.
The group also suggested that “the national government may consider reverting to a stricter quarantine classification or resort to localized lockdowns” for local government units under the following circumstances:
-If there is an increase in new cases for two consecutive weeks and
-If the daily attack rate is greater than 7% per 1,000 (equivalent to 50 new cases per week per 100k population)
-If the LGU has limited hospital capacity or hospital occupancy is already in excess of the 70% which is the critical level set by government.
In its report, the OCTA group also identified the following areas as “hotspots” or those with the most number of new cases per day over the past two weeks:
- NCR (902 additional cases)
- Cavite (208)
- Rizal (131)
- Batangas (121)
- Laguna (121)
- Bulacan (98)
- Negros Occidental (93)
- Iloilo (81)
“Given the analysis of attack rates in the NCR and other cities and municipalities around the country, we urge the national government and the local government units (LGUs) concerned to further intensify their efforts at testing, tracing, and isolation to reverse the increase of transmissions at the community level,” the group said.
For cities outside NCR, topping the list of areas with the highest daily attack rate are Iloilo City, Bauan and Baguio City.
Data from Department of Health (DOH) in Western Visayas also indicated an uptrend in Iloilo and Negros Occidental.
As of Oct 12, the region recorded 251 new confirmed cases. Negros Occidental logged 141, Iloilo City, 59; Bacolod City, 25; Iloilo province, 19; Capiz has five; and Aklan with two.
Bacolod City topped the region in the number of cases with 4,423 while Negros Occidental has 3,669.
In the last two days, Negros Occidental recorded 54 cases on Oct 11 and 56 on Oct 10.
Bacolod City recorded 35 on Oct 11 and 32 on Oct 10.
On Oct 13, the region reported 105 new cases with Iloilo City accounting for 38 new cases; Negros Occidental, 37; Bacolod City, 19; Iloilo province, 7; and Capiz, 2.
Overall, Region 6 has 13,924 cases (3,177 actives cases, 10,411 recoveries, and 336 deaths).
Bacolod City tops the list of total cases with 4,440, Negros Occidental with 3,705, Iloilo City with 3,229, Iloilo province with 1,573, Capiz with 626, Guimaras with 150, Aklan with 130, and Antique with 65.
The OCTA Group noted that the reproduction number of transmission rate of the COVID-19 disease in the Philippines was at 0.88%, which is still less than 1%. This means that an infected person is only able to infect one other person or none at all unlike at the onset of the pandemic when it was around 2 or 3.
Experts believe that if the reproduction number is less than 1, the disease won’t spread anymore.
The group also showed that the positivity rate of NCR went down to 8% from 12% in the week of August 29 to September 4. This is still higher than the World Health Organization benchmark of 5 percent and below.
Among NCR cities, San Juan had the highest “attack rate” or the percentage of the population affected by the disease per day. A daily attack rate of 5% per 1,000 means that there are 5 new cases per 100,000 of the population, the group explained.
San Juan was followed by Pateros and Makati although all three are considered to have an improving or decreasing attack rate.
The research group recommended that together with pushing the economy, the country’s health care system must also have the following:
-Increased capacity to deal with the potential outbreaks
-Sufficient testing capability to cope with the expected increase in cases
-Sufficient personal protection equipment (PPE) supplies for the frontliners
-Sufficient number of isolation facilities in the NCR and around the country
-Roll out of an effective and aggressive system for contact tracing for active case finding
