By Artchil B. Fernandez
India at present is a public health catastrophe, a public health nightmare. Deaths and daily infections have reached unprecedented levels last week and wailing echoed across the country as a new devastating surge of the pandemic went on a rampage.
On April 29, 2021 for example, 379,000 Indians got the virus while 3,645 died from Covid-19. These are new records of daily infections and deaths and are likely to be broken again. As of this writing, 18,376,524 people got Covid-19 in the sub-continent and 204,832 of them died from the disease.
The health care system in India is now on the verge of collapse if it is not already crumbling overwhelmed with cases. People are pleading hospitals for admission but are turned down. There is no more space available either in hallways or hospital grounds.
“There are just too many patients coming in,” cried Dr. Chaitanya Patil, a senior resident doctor at King Edward Memorial government hospital in Mumbai.
The situation in India’s hospitals is dire. Oxygen is running out in many hospitals as well as other medical supplies. Nations around the world are sending help to the sub-continent underscoring the gravity of the situation.
It is not only hospitals that are on tatters in India but also crematoriums. The number of deaths overwhelms crematoriums forcing many of them to build makeshift ones on their grounds. Crematoriums buckle under the strain of record deaths turning down families and advising them to bury their loved ones in their back gardens.
The current pandemic scenes in India are heartbreaking. How did it happen?
India surprisingly had relatively low infections and deaths (in proportion to its 1.4 billion population) when the pandemic broke out last year. Prior to the devastating second wave in April 2021, the Indian government claimed victory over the pandemic. Indian Health Minister Harsh Vadhan declared “We are in the ‘end game’ of the Covid-19 pandemic in India” (eerily very Harry Roque).
The declaration was premature, a hollow boast. Few weeks after the brag, India had the worst Covid-19 surge in the world. The country is now sending an SOS to the international community pleading for oxygen, medicines and medical supplies.
“We completely let down our guard and assumed in January that the pandemic was over – and COVID surveillance and control took a back seat,” K. Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India explains the reasons behind the world’s worst surge. The Indian government according to him was so obsessed with reviving the economy that it relaxed restrictions and allowed mass gatherings particularly political rallies, religious activities and family/private parties. Cinemas, schools, malls, bars and restaurants were also allowed to open.
Five states were given a go signal to proceed with elections and politicians held huge rallies. Hindu Kumbh Mela festival was permitted with full fun-fare and hundreds of thousands of Indians descended into the Ganges River. People in these super spreader events did not observe proper health protocols especially wearing masks.
The result is a calamity never-before-seen by the world in this pandemic. Chaos has descended upon India. There is weeping throughout the country, grief and pain sweeping the land as consequences of its government’s reckless decision. Incidentally, India is also being led by a populist with authoritarian tendencies – Narendra Modi.
What is happening in India today is a grim warning to the Philippines. If the country is not careful, it might become a mini-India as it is also currently experiencing a serious surge which is worse than last year. The mantra “what about the economy,” prioritizing wealth over health is also the dominant thinking of top government officials managing the pandemic.
After placing the National Capital Region (NCR) Plus or Bubble under Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) for two weeks, the government eased the restrictions fearing its impact on the country’s economy. The epicenter of the serious surged was downgraded to modified ECQ despite a slight drop in daily infections. From 10,000 average daily cases of infections when NCR Plus was under ECQ, it went down to only 9,500 when the area was placed in MECQ. This is not only a small drop but also way above the 6,958 which was the highest daily case of infections in 2020. The present average is also very high compared to the 3,000 daily average cases on the eve of the current serious surge.
Considering that the reduction of daily infections at present is not really significant and it remains high compared to last year’s daily average which ranges from 2,000 to 3,000, the easing of restrictions due to economic consideration is a serious concern. In the next two weeks, NCR Bubble will remain under MECQ Du30 announced this week which NCR mayors call “Flexible MECQ.” Here is another play of words since “MECQ Flex” which allows more economic activities and shortened curfew in reality is General Community Quarantine (GCQ).
The cycle is likely to be repeated as in the past. GCQ with lax restrictions allows greater movement of people. The current serious surge was traced to the GCQ status of the NCR Plus area. The relaxation caused a serious surge forcing the government to place the area under ECQ again. It is possible another serious surge can happen again in July-August which IATF Chief Secretary Galvez has already projected. When will the Du30administration get the country out of the ECQ-MECQ-GCQ-MGCQ loop? Once the India scenario occurs?
India has already provided a possible trajectory for the Philippines in this pandemic. The warning must be heeded before it’s too late.
