House Deputy Majority Leader and Iloilo City Rep. Julienne “Jam-Jam” L. Baronda is set to defeat her opponents, whether she seeks re-election as congresswoman or runs for mayor, according to the latest survey by Random Access Consultants, Inc. (RACI).
Baronda leads by a significant margin, with 57.3% of the vote for congresswoman, compared to Mayor Jerry Treñas, who garnered only 42.5%.
The gaping 14.8% lead demonstrates Baronda’s strong voter base and puts her on track to secure her final term in Congress.
Despite Treñas’s aggressive campaign efforts and media attacks, Baronda’s support remains solid, as shown in RACI’s September 27-29, 2024, multi-stage probability sampling survey of 600 respondents.
The survey reveals that six out of 10 voters would choose Baronda for the city’s lone congressional seat.
Baronda is also expected to defeat Raisa Treñas-Chu if the latter challenges her for Congress.
Baronda leads with 62%, while Chu holds 37.8%, despite months of intensive campaigning and leveraging City Hall resources.
The 24.2% margin underscores Ilonggos’ preference for Baronda’s continued leadership.
In a potential mayoral contest between Baronda and Chu, Baronda is projected to win with 55% of the vote, while Chu trails with 44.5%, reflecting a 10.5% margin.
Chu is also predicted to face a tough challenge from former Mayor Jed Patrick Mabilog, who has returned from self-exile and is statistically tied with her in the race.
Although Mabilog has not yet declared his candidacy, he already holds 48.8% of the vote compared to Chu’s 50.5%, within the survey’s ±4% margin of error.
“We can conclude that the Baronda-Mabilog tandem is extremely difficult to beat, especially considering the Treñas camp has already mobilized all its resources since March, when the elder Treñas unilaterally severed ties with Baronda,” a political analyst said.
The analyst added that while the Treñases’ support has likely peaked, Baronda and Mabilog still have room to gain momentum, noting that “the numbers suggest the Treñas political stronghold is weakening.”
Mabilog’s return led to a 16.3% surge in his support compared to his June 2024 score of 32.5%, when Chu led with 65%. In the latest survey, Chu lost 14.5% of her support, with much of that support shifting to Mabilog.
Baronda has also seen a 4.6% increase in support, while Mayor Treñas’s backing has declined by 4.5% from his June score of 47%, when Baronda held 52.7%.
The Baronda-Mabilog tandem is expected to file their Certificates of Candidacy on Tuesday, alongside a complete slate of candidates for vice mayor and city councilors.
Their team includes a mix of fresh faces with strong leadership and advocacy backgrounds, as well as returning public servants with unblemished records.
