By Francis Allan L. Angelo
The 2024 Philippine Climate Change Assessment (PhilCCA) report reveals alarming trends in the country’s climate, emphasizing a need for urgent action.
Presented during a media briefing by the Oscar M. Lopez Center and Climate Tracker Asia, the report highlights key findings on the physical science basis of climate change and its impacts on the Philippines.
Data shows a steady rise in the country’s annual mean temperature since 1951, increasing by 0.77°C, which has exacerbated nighttime heat and altered local climates.
Rainfall patterns in the country are also shifting, with scientists warning of more intense weather events.
Some areas will experience increased rainfall, while others will face drier conditions, which could devastate agriculture and food security.
The agriculture sector is at particular risk, as it heavily depends on consistent rainfall patterns.
Coastal communities are not spared either, with sea levels rising at a rate of 5-7 millimeters annually, leading to increased flooding and erosion risks.
Fr. Jett Villarin, climate scientist and executive director of the Manila Observatory, noted that “The Philippines, being an archipelago, is facing one of the fastest rates of sea-level rise in the world. Yet, we still lack sufficient data to fully understand its implications.”
Another significant finding in the report is the changing nature of tropical cyclones. While the number of cyclones affecting the Philippines may decrease, those that do occur are expected to become more intense under high-emission scenarios.
The report notes that, under such conditions, more destructive storms could devastate vulnerable communities.
Scientists also identified gaps in the country’s climate data, calling for improved research infrastructure, including more weather stations.
Dr. Rosa Perez, one of the authors of PhilCCA Cycle 2, stressed that localized data remains sparse, particularly in remote areas, affecting the accuracy of climate models.
Despite significant progress in climate science, there are still critical data gaps. The lack of comprehensive data hampers efforts to fully understand and mitigate localized climate impacts.
One of the report’s new areas of focus is the contribution of urbanization to temperature increases.
Urban heat islands (UHIs) in cities, especially in Metro Manila, exacerbate the warming effect.
“Our cities are becoming hotter, particularly at night, due to the way they are built,” said John Manalo of weather bureau PAG-ASA.
‘CHRISTMAS TYPHOONS’
The Philippines has experienced a significant increase in “Christmas typhoons,” with a 210% rise in tropical cyclones occurring from December to February since 2012, according to the report.
This trend is even more pronounced in the southern part of the country, where such storms surged by 480%.
“These tropical cyclones are still low in number, but they have been increasing in recent years,” according to Faye Cruz, a climate scientist and head of the Manila Observatory’s Regional Climate Systems Laboratory.
The report, which analyzes the physical science basis of climate change in the Philippines, highlights growing concerns over the intensifying impacts of tropical cyclones.
The frequency and severity of these events are rising, leading to more dangerous storms during a period traditionally seen as off-season for typhoons.
In addition to the increase in Christmas typhoons, the report also revealed that tropical cyclone-induced rainfall in the Philippines has grown significantly since 2000.
Rainfall linked to these storms has increased by 16.9% to 19.3% per decade, which has exacerbated the risk of flooding and other climate-related disasters.
“These increases in cyclone-induced rainfall are concerning,” Cruz said.
“The data shows that we are experiencing more intense storms, and they are bringing more rain, which increases the likelihood of severe flooding.”
Climatologist Lourdes Tibig, a lead author of two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and a climate adviser for the Manila-based Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities, emphasized the connection between these changes and human-induced climate change.
“The observed impacts featured in the assessment are really attributable to human-induced climate change,” she said.
Tibig pointed to the long-term rise in temperatures as further evidence of the human contribution to the climate crisis.
Between 1951 and 2018, the Philippines experienced an average temperature increase of 0.16°C per decade, according to the PhilCCA report.
This warming trend is particularly concerning for a country like the Philippines, which is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as typhoons, floods, and rising sea levels.
The increasing temperatures contribute to the intensification of tropical storms, making them more destructive as they reach Philippine shores.
PREPAREDNESS STRATEGIES
The findings come ahead of the Asia-Pacific Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Preparedness, where the data from the report is expected to inform disaster preparedness strategies.
This information is crucial for local governments to strengthen disaster risk reduction efforts.
The report also underscores the urgent need for better urban resilience planning, especially in highly urbanized areas prone to flooding and heatwaves.
“Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns necessitate heat-resilient infrastructure and improved flood defenses,” added Villarin.
In concluding the briefing, Dr. Perez emphasized the importance of using the findings to inform policy and promote climate action.
“This report provides the foundation for evidence-based policies. It’s up to all of us to make decisions that will protect future generations,” she said.
The report will be officially released next week, along with fact sheets and infographics to help disseminate its findings to a broader audience.
