By Alex P. Vidal
“I always lose the election in the polls, and I always win it on election day.” — Benjamin Netanyahu
CANDIDATES in next year’s Philippine midterm elections—local and national—shouldn’t allow themselves to be distracted by the “results” of surveys commissioned by legitimate or shady outfits, especially survey firms that spring to life only during the election seasons.
In Iloilo, surveys may become irrelevant for the first time; many outfits may be “out of business” now that most of the rivalries for local positions aren’t anymore expected to produce fire and brimstone.
If not token opposition candidates, the names of challengers for governor, city mayor, congressional offices are almost synonymous to the Sesame Street alphabets.
Whether they “lag behind” or “leading”, these surveys do not necessarily spell doomsday or ensure the victory of any candidate during the day of reckoning.
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If the results say candidate so and so is trailing by a certain percentage, it can be only tantamount to a mosquito bite for the embattled candidate but with no immediate life-threatening harm.
If the results show a certain candidate is “winning by a wide margin”, it can only be an equivalent to a Shiatsu massage in the “winning” candidate’s ego but with no actual majestic trip to Shangri-La.
There were cases though when bogus surveys yielded positive results after the election for narcissistic or egomaniac bets especially if the other camps didn’t do their homework and were snoring during the frenetic mind game.
This is where the mosquito bite can turn fatal.
In fact, surveys–legit or not—were sometimes utilized only by spin doctors and wheeler-dealers working for one candidate to out-psych and befuddle their rivals.
It’s actually a form of mind-conditioning.
In some cases, candidates who get favorable results or those who stand to benefit from the lutong Macao surveys don’t have any idea or aren’t tipped off by handlers hammering out the inside job.
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Some undecided voters cast their lot for the “sure winners” (according to the dubious surveys) even if they actually fancy the other candidates–on second thought—but are only influenced by the surveys.
We’ve covered local and national elections since after democracy was restored in the Philippines in 1986 up and could count with our fingers the number of candidates who emerged victorious after “topping” the surveys.
Many survey “winners” had no inkling the surveys weren’t commissioned by independent professional groups but were instead paid for by their sneaky handlers.
When the election results showed they were waylaid by a mile, that’s when they realized they had been given false hopes or taken for a ride.
The late Timoteo “Nene” Consing always made the late Mansueto “Mansing Malabor eat the dust in various surveys during the mayoral contest in Iloilo City in 1992, but Malabor routed him in actual election.
Former assemblyman Salvador “Buddy” Britanico clobbered the late former justice secretary Raul Gonzalez in the “surveys” for congressman in Iloilo City’s lone district in 1998, but the former tanodbayan trounced him when the smoke was cleared.
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The late former ambassador Danding Cojuangco was one of the most consistent top notchers in the 1992 presidential election.
The former Marcos crony “beat” the late Fidel V. Ramos, the late Miriam Defensor-Santiago, the late Ramon Mitra, the late Jovito Salonga, and Imelda Marcos in the surveys that popped out left and right weeks before the election day.
Joe De Venecia, who never lost in the “surveys” for president in 1998, lost by six million votes to the winner, Joseph “Erap” Estrada.
The late Fernando Poe Jr. routed former President and now Pampanga Rep. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo in various surveys but lost by a thin margin during the “Hello Garci”-tainted 2014 presidential contest.
Even polling results in the more advanced and sophisticated United States fizzle out. Nothing seems accurate when it comes to pre-election forecasting; in fact, nothing is perfect.
Thus, candidates in the May 2025 midterm elections should focus on their campaign and stick to strategies, not on surveys. They must wait until after the biggest and final “survey” has concluded that’s on election day, which is only hours after all the votes have been officially counted.
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SAVING OUR PLANET: Don’t dispose. Whenever we can, let’s swap our throw-away, disposable items for reusable versions. We won’t have to pay out repeatedly plus we will avoid contributing to landfill.
HETEROPHOBIA is a fear of the opposite sex. So where will the heterophobics intend to live? In other planets?
(The author, who is now based in New York City, used to be the editor of two daily newspapers in Iloiloi.—Ed)
