By Artchil B. Fernandez
The November 5, 2024, election is the most consequential election for the United States (US) in modern times. The result of the election is a turning point for America for it will determine the fate of its democracy. Will democracy in the US die on that day or will it experience a rebirth?
American democracy today stands on shaky ground. The presidency of Donald Trump (2016-2020) placed so much strain on US democratic institutions and they survived his presidency severely damaged. Should he win in the coming election, US democracy will not be lucky this time.
Revenge and retribution are high on Trump’s agenda should he become president again. He is seething with vengeance, and he did not hide it in his public speeches during the campaign. Getting even with his perceived enemies is paramount to him.
No modern politician has change American political landscape than Donald Trump. Few decades before Trump appeared in US political scene, politicians involved in scandals far less than what Trump are now in are politically dead.
In 1987, Sen. Gary Hart of Colorado, then a leading Democratic presidential candidate, saw his campaign collapse after revelations of an extramarital affair with Donna Rice, a 29-year-old model. That single scandal ended his presidential ambitions.
Trump’s scandals are far more serious. He had an affair with porn star Stormy Daniels and was prosecuted for falsifying business records to cover up alleged crimes: illegal campaign contributions by his lawyer Michael Cohen, tax law violations, and a conspiracy to influence the 2016 election. A jury found him guilty of all 34 felony counts in the hush money case.
In a separate civil case, a jury also found Trump liable for sexually abusing writer E. Jean Carroll. He was ordered to pay Carroll $5 million in damages for sexual assault and an additional $83.3 million for defamation.
New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron ruled that Trump and his organization committed civil fraud, repeatedly misrepresenting property values and net worth. This inflated valuation allowed them to secure favorable loan rates and financial terms. Trump and his company were fined $354 million.
Trump also faces multiple ongoing cases. He is charged with 37 felonies related to his alleged unlawful removal of classified documents from the White House. In Fulton County, Georgia, Trump and 18 others face racketeering charges for a purported conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election. Additionally, he is charged with four federal felonies connected to efforts to retain power after his 2020 election loss.
These past and pending cases would have ended any political career in the past. Yet, Trump is not only running for president for a third time but remains competitive in the polls. Despite his legal troubles, he and his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, are statistically tied, with Harris holding a slim lead of one to two percentage points.
How can a candidate with a history of misogynistic, racist rhetoric and flirtations with authoritarianism be on the verge of a historic comeback? This reflects not only the toxicity in U.S. politics but also reveals an anti-democratic undercurrent among nearly half of the American population. A significant portion of Americans, potentially enough to return Trump to power, appears to align with his authoritarian views.
If Trump wins, it would signify the decline of American democracy and the shift to a populist authoritarian rule. With such an outcome, the U.S. would lose its standing as a “bastion of democracy” and “beacon of freedom and hope.” U.S. democracy is on trial in this election, with the verdict due on Nov. 5.
The fate of U.S. democracy hinges on seven swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. To win, a candidate must secure 270 out of 538 electoral votes. In the U.S., electoral votes, not the popular vote, determine the presidency. With the exception of Nebraska and Maine, where electoral votes are allocated through a mix of statewide and congressional district results, all other states award their electoral votes based on the popular vote within the state. A state’s electoral votes equal its combined House and Senate seats, with California holding the largest number (54), followed by Texas (40) and Florida (30).
Intriguingly, the decision to preserve U.S. democracy or turn toward autocracy may rest in the hands of a few thousand voters in swing states, not the entire population. Only a small number of voters in these states will ultimately decide the nation’s future, not the millions across the country.
In a true popular democracy, Trump would have little chance of victory. He lost the popular vote in the last two elections but won in 2016 due to the electoral system. Now, that same system could see him regain power. Can the U.S. truly be called a democracy if the majority’s voice can be overridden by a small fraction of the population? The world will know on Nov. 5, 2024.
