By Joseph B.A. Marzan

Western Visayas’ coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation remains steady at Low Risk while Aklan is still at High Risk according to the latest situational report by the Department of Health-Western Visayas Center for Health Development (DOH-WV CHD) Monday.

The same report also indicated that Antique and the cities of Iloilo and Bacolod are at Moderate Risk.

The risk ratings are based on the DOH’s Community Quarantine Decision Framework (CQDF), which is comprised of the 2-Week Growth Rate (2WGR) (rate of growth of cases in an area) and the Average Daily Attack Rate (ADAR) (number of cases in an area per 100,000 population), which are both measured over a 14-day period.

The region’s Low Risk rating was due to its Low 2WGR (-10 percent) and Moderate ADAR (6.83), based on new cases reported from July 9 to July 22.

Aklan’s High Risk rating was due to increases in its Moderate 2WGR, from 13.61 percent (June 25 to July 8) to 36 percent (July 9 to 22), as well as its High ADAR, from 14.35 (June 25 to July 8) to 19.57 (July 9 to 22).

Dr. Bea Camille Fillaro-Natalaray, Non-Communicable Diseases Cluster head of DOH-WV CHD, said Aklan towns under either Critical or High Risk include Madalag, Numancia, Balete, Banga, Ibajay, Kalibo, Libacao, Makato, Malay, and Malinao.

Natalaray added that the surge in cases in Aklan could be traced to “a lot of factors”, including the possible presence of foreign-bred COVID-19 variants.

“We have a lot of factors to be looked at or considered in tracing the surge of cases, first including following minimum public health standards, the speed of local government units’ implementation of measures to detect and isolate positive cases, and we are also looking at increased transmission in certain areas with clustering of cases possibly due to presence of variants,” Natalaray said in the latest edition of Isyung Bakuna on Monday.

The Moderate ratings of Iloilo and Bacolod cities was borne by their Low 2WGR (Bacolod City: -29 percent, Iloilo City: -11 percent) and High ADAR (Bacolod City: 10.99, Iloilo City: 18.04) from July 9 to 22.

Antique’s Moderate rating came from a balance of a Moderate 2WGR (28 percent) and Moderate ADAR (5.32) for the same period.

The rest of the region, including Capiz, Guimaras, Iloilo province, and Negros Occidental, enjoy Low Risk rating.

As to 2WGR, Negros Occidental posted the lowest (-30 percent), followed by Guimaras (-24 percent), Capiz (-18 percent), and Iloilo province (-15 percent).

Negros Occidental also posted the lowest ADAR (2.80), followed by Capiz (3.52), Guimaras (4.28), and Iloilo province (6.37).

HEALTH CARE UTILIZATION

The region’s Health Care Utilization Rate (HCUR) or the percentage rate of occupancy of COVID-dedicated beds and use of mechanical ventilators, is at 60.85 percent as of July 25, a slight increase from July 18 (60.56 percent).

Iloilo City still has the highest HCUR in the region (83.60 percent), specifically utilization of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds (98.45 percent), isolation beds (78.95 percent), and mechanical ventilators (67.07 percent).

While it posted a high utilization rate for COVID ward beds (87.93 percent), Iloilo City was “bested by Aklan (88.04 percent).

The HCUR of Capiz is 64.15 percent, followed by Antique (63.03 percent), Iloilo province (55.19 percent), Aklan (55.00 percent), Guimaras (49.21 percent), Negros Occidental (48.04 percent), and Bacolod City (46.87 percent).

POSITIVITY AND CASE FATALITY RATES

Based on DOH-WV CHD data as of July 25, 2021, the region logged 81,349 COVID-19 cases (13.39 percent active cases, 84.31 percent recovered, and 2.28 percent deaths).

The daily average of new COVID-19 cases showed a slight but significant drop at 611 cases per day as of July 25, lower than the 633 cases per day in June, but still higher than May (371) and April (261).

The positivity rate in the region continues to rise, now at 9.5 percent as of July 23, with 84,773 yielding positive results out of 888,861 individuals tested. This is an increase from 9.3 percent (July 18) and 9.0 percent (July 11).

Natalaray says that the growing positivity rate suggests increased transmission of COVID-19.

The region’s Case Fatality Rate (CFR) or the percentage rate of COVID-19 deaths, remained at 2.28 percent, still higher than the national CFR (1.76 percent) and the global CFR (2.15 percent).

Like previous weeks, Capiz still has the highest CFR (3.76 percent), and is followed by Iloilo City (2.70 percent), Guimaras (2.51 percent), Antique (2.49 percent), Iloilo province (2.46 percent), Bacolod City (2.32 percent), Negros Occidental (1.74 percent), and Aklan (1.33 percent).