By Joseph B.A. Marzan
Latest data from the Department of Health-Western Visayas Center for Health Development’s (DOH-WV CHD) as of Nov 7, 2021 indicated a continuing downtrend in new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the region after logging only 2,353 cases in the past 14 days.
These new cases were reported between Oct. 22 and Nov. 4, showing a steady decline from new infections logged between Oct. 8 to 21 (5,206), and Sept. 24 and Oct. 7 (8,771).
The most recent figures represented a 2-Week Growth Rate (2WGR) of –55 percent and an Average Daily Attack Rate (ADAR) of 2.13. These are lower than the previous 2WGR of –40.65 percent and ADAR of 4.70.
The 2WGR and ADAR are 14-day measurements of COVID transmission, the former referring to how much COVID has spread in percentage, and the former referring to how many new COVID cases are there in an area per 100,000 population.
Based on the DOH-WV CHD’s matrix, these figures represent Low Risk for COVID-19 transmission in the entire region.
The region’s health care utilization rate (HCUR), or the percentage rate of COVID-dedicated beds and ventilators used, also decreased to 36.48 percent.
Given the numbers, Region 6 is currently under Alert Level 2.
According to the national Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-MEID), an area is under Alert Level 2 when:
- COVID case transmission is low and decreasing, and health care utilization is low; or
- Case counts are low but increasing; or
- Case counts are low and decreasing but total bed utilization rate and intensive care unit utilization rate is increasing.
LEVELS PER AREA
On a per-area basis, the risk classification matrix showed that Aklan and Antique are now at Minimal Risk for COVID, while only Iloilo City has an Alert Level 1 status.
Based on the risk classification, Capiz, Guimaras, Iloilo province, Negros Occidental, Bacolod City and Iloilo City are all under Low Risk.
For the Alert Level classification, all other areas in Western Visayas are under Alert Level 2.
Aklan posted the biggest decline in 2WGR (-76 percent), followed by Guimaras (-66 percent), Bacolod City (-64 percent), Capiz (-61 percent), Iloilo City and Iloilo province (-57 percent each), Negros Occidental (-45 percent), and Antique (-41 percent).
Aklan also has the lowest ADAR (0.19), followed by Antique (0.65), Capiz (1.15), Guimaras and Iloilo province (1.23 each), Negros Occidental (2.94) Iloilo City (3.03), and Bacolod City (6.14).
As to the HCUR, Aklan also has the lowest in the region (2.94 percent), followed by Antique (19.74 percent), Iloilo province (30.40 percent), Capiz (32.35 percent), Guimaras (34.48 percent), Iloilo City (42.53 percent), Negros Occidental (46.25 percent), and Bacolod City (54.62 percent).
DOH-WV CHD spokesperson Dr. Bea Camille Natalaray clarified that Bacolod City will remain under the highest Alert Level 4, based on previous cases logged, as mandated by the IATF-MEID.
She explained that the alert levels are based on previous COVID case trends, where Bacolod City experienced a surge in COVID cases back in October.
“We are following the [IATF-MEID] alert levels, since the [IATF-MEID] declared that [Bacolod City] is under Alert Level 4 based on the cases in the previous 2 weeks. Maybe we can see, based on the 1st week of November, on our own parameters, they are Alert Level 2, hopefully in the next national [IATF-MEID] assessment their alert level can be lowered,” Natalaray emphasized.
Natalaray also reiterated that the improvements in the case trends should not be taken as a sign of complacency in the region.
“Let us continue to strengthen our local response in all areas. We have to continue looking for symptomatic patients and test and isolate them immediately. As we safely reopen our economy, mobility will be increased but we have to continue following guidelines and protocols. Vaccination is open to everyone in our eligible population,” she said.
