By Artchil B. Fernandez
Finally, after weeks of dilly-dallying, House Marcos found the resolve to strike back at House Duterte.
It retaliated forcefully to counter the resurging offensive of Team Agila.
2024 ended with the Dutertes reeling from the relentless hounding of Team Tigre.
Congress launched a series of investigations into the misdeeds of the Duterte administration, focusing on the complex relationship between the war on drugs, extrajudicial killings, and Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs).
The investigations yielded crucial evidence of transgressions committed under the previous administration.
Vice President Sara Duterte was isolated from the national government, her office budget drastically reduced, and she was also subjected to Congressional investigations.
Before the year ended, three impeachment complaints were lodged against her in the House of Representatives.
But 2025 began with the Dutertes appearing to turn the tide.
The bloc-voting sect Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) flexed its muscle in opposition to Sara Duterte’s impeachment.
The 2025 budget fiasco gave the Dutertes an opening to launch an offensive, putting House Marcos on the defensive.
Bongbong Marcos’ vacillating stance on his vice president’s impeachment further emboldened the Dutertes to counterattack.
Until last week, it seemed the tide had shifted in favor of the Dutertes.
Former President Rodrigo Duterte publicly accused BBM of committing an unconstitutional act by signing a national budget with blanks and missing pieces.
His allies filed motions before the Supreme Court questioning the validity of the 2025 national budget.
BBM responded by calling his predecessor a liar, branding the move against his budget a destabilization act.
But this week, House Marcos made a decisive move to halt the momentum of House Duterte.
On the last day of the congressional session before the election recess, the House impeached Sara Duterte and swiftly transmitted the complaint to the Senate.
A fourth impeachment complaint was drafted and signed by more than two-thirds (215) of House members to expedite floor deliberation and immediately send it to the Senate for trial.
Only one-third (102) of the 307 House members are required to send an impeachment complaint directly to the Senate, but the House secured over two-thirds to demonstrate the overwhelming support for Sara Duterte’s removal.
It was a grand display of raw power.
With dramatic flair, the first signature on the fourth impeachment complaint belonged to Sandro Marcos, BBM’s son, while the last signature on the charge sheet was that of Speaker Martin Romualdez, BBM’s cousin.
House Marcos’ fingerprints were all over the impeachment complaint.
Rep. Paolo Duterte, the vice president’s brother, quickly denounced the impeachment of his sister, calling it “political persecution.”
“This administration is treading on dangerous ground. If they were unfazed by the over one million rallying supporters of Iglesia Ni Cristo, then they are blindly marching toward an even greater storm—one that could shake the very foundation of their rule,” he raged.
Now that Sara Duterte is impeached, what’s next?
The future appears murky.
The Senate received the impeachment complaint but did not act on it.
Instead, it adjourned for the election recess without taking up the impeachment trial of the vice president.
The Senate is playing its own political game.
The Senate can hold an impeachment trial if it decides to, or if compelled by judicial order or executive action.
Holding an impeachment trial during an election campaign would be a spectacle.
The trial would undoubtedly compete with campaign efforts, possibly even upstaging the election itself.
The interplay between the impeachment trial and candidates’ campaigns could be a fascinating political showdown.
Should the Senate wait until after the election to hold an impeachment trial—as preferred by its Senate president—this would have a major impact on the election.
In this scenario, newly elected senators would be part of the jury, deciding the fate of Sara Duterte.
The result of the 2025 elections will determine the outcome of the impeachment trial.
If a majority of newly elected senators are allies of House Marcos, the trial will likely favor the current administration.
If House Duterte’s allies dominate the elections, Sara Duterte will survive politically, strengthening her bid for the presidency in 2028.
A two-thirds vote of the 24-member Senate is required to convict Sara Duterte.
House Duterte only needs nine senators to block her conviction, while House Marcos must secure at least 16 guilty votes.
Many senators are expected to act coy and play both sides.
Whether the impeachment trial is held during the campaign period or after the election, one thing is certain—it will be the defining issue of the 2025 elections.
Candidates for national positions will be forced to take a stand on the impeachment, winning or losing based on their stance.
Both House Marcos and House Duterte will make impeachment the centerpiece of their election battle.
The Senate slates of both factions will campaign on the impeachment issue, making it the defining political narrative.
The Dutertes will use Sara Duterte’s impeachment as an appeal to the electorate, portraying her as a victim of political persecution.
House Marcos, on the other hand, will use the impeachment to expose the Dutertes’ alleged corruption and misdeeds, portraying them as unfit to return to power.
The impeachment of Sara Duterte has drastically altered the dynamics of the 2025 elections.
The future of House Marcos and House Duterte hinges on the outcome of the impeachment trial, but the impeachment trial itself hangs in the balance, awaiting the results of the 2025 elections.
It is a strange political twist indeed.
