By Artchil B. Fernandez
Dictators do not live forever, and continuity is their constant dilemma. The quandary is worse for proto-dictators like Du30 who is not an absolute ruler. Facing the end of his term, Du30 is desperately maneuvering to control or to remain a key player in the post-Du30 era.
The high drama that unfolded until the last minute of the deadline for the substitution of candidates this week involving Du30 and his family reveals the frantic effort of Du30 to secure the succession in his favor. Months prior to the deadline, Du30 was in a “mix and match” experiment, trying to come up with the right combination to ensure that his administration is still in power after he steps down from office.
At the top of Du30’s agenda is ensuring that his successor is someone he completely trusts, someone who is totally committed to protecting not just the legacy of his administration but his person from prosecution, both in local and international courts. Only two people qualify in the prime criterion of Du30, his political son and long-time personal aide Bong Go and his biological daughter, Sara Duterte. They are Du30’s dream team but what is the proper mix and match?
For a while, Du30 toyed with the idea that his political son can be his successor. He pushed him to be a senator in 2019 not only to have national exposure but in preparation for eventual succession. The political advertisement of the administration showing Du30 anointing Bong Go as his heir is crystal clear.
This move of Du30 only worsened the intra-family war between his first and second families. Bong Go who has partnered with the second family in numerous adventures involving government projects obviously displayed where his bias is. It only hardened Sara Duterte’s contempt of his father’s faithful caregiver.
The high rating of Sara Duterte in the surveys among the presidential aspirants however is a damper to the plan of Du30. This made Du30 rethink his position and came up with a Sara Duterte-Bong Go match. The daughter’s dislike of the political son is a major stumbling block to the pairing. Sara Duterte made it plain she does not want to have anything to do with whatever his father and his long-time aide are cooking.
Further complicating the situation for Du30 is the plan and ambition of his political allies. The Marcoses are determined to reclaim power and believe this is the opportune time for them to realize the obsession. Then there is the presidential ambition of Manny Pacquiao who was president of the administration party.
It was easy for Du30 to dispatch the Pacquiao problem, but the Marcoses are a tough nut to crack. To untangle the Marcos knot, a Sara Duterte-Bongbong Marcos duo or vice-versa was floated. For some time, cliques and factions within the ruling coalition are in a state of suspended animation, waiting with bated breath which combination will come out. Who will bend the knee?
While haggling, negotiation and backroom trade were made within the ruling coalition placeholders were implanted, with Bato de la Rosa as the ultimate clown. In the middle of the mix and match deals was Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (GMA) who fears the break-up of the ruling coalition will only benefit the opposition.
The drama and comedy that unfurled last weekend show how the intramural within the ruling coalition played out. Sara Duterte withdrew her mayoral bid and ran for vice-president in partnership with Bongbong Marcos. Her visibly irked father countered her move by ordering his heir to withdraw from the vice-presidential race and run for president instead. The father also threatened to run against the daughter.
The mix and match experiment Du30 indulged in the past months yielded a result that is far from what he wanted. It is a hybrid political creature which can likely be the Frankenstein monster of the ruling coalition and its factions. It is a two-headed monster – Bongbong Marcos and Bong Go, the heads attached to a single Sara Duterte body. Depending on which perspective one is looking, the creature could be a fearsome monster or a pitiful and hilarious ogre.
Du30 succeeded in pairing his political son with his biological daughter but under an awkward arrangement and in a match that is less than what he desires (Sara-Bong). He failed in persuading his daughter to lead the administration and its slate in the coming electoral battle. In short, Du30 got entangled in his own trap.
Sara Duterte’s decision to run for national office but not in the position her father wanted indicates all is not well between them. Why run for vice president when she is leading in presidential surveys her perplexed father asked? The decision also implies only the daughter capitulated to the Marcoses, not the clan particularly the patriarch.
The Bongbong Marcos-Sara Duterte tandem reveals the limits of GMA’s manipulative skill. She prevented a Sara-Bongbong clash but utterly failed to preserve the ruling coalition. The splintering of the ruling coalition which she feared and tried to prevent in the first place became a reality. All her efforts went to naught.
Bongbong Marcos may declare victory by luring Sara Duterte to play second fiddle to him, but the triumph is hollow. He calculated that by capturing the daughter he can force the administration to support him, but he was wrong. The administration declared its official candidates are the Bong Go-Sara Duterte tandem leaving him in a hanging and uneasy predicament. Sara Duterte only brought her lonesome self.
Mix and match game of Du30 produced a half-baked, half-cooked outcome that could poison the chances of the administration and its former allies in the coming election. It also brought them to the situation they wanted to avoid, fragmentation.
