By Engr. Edgar Mana-ay
Around the world, there were many unusual events that happened as an off shoot of the Covid-19 pandemic. About 600 tons of gold worth more than $35 billion was physically added to the Comex warehouse in New York, the epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S. This is roughly equivalent to global gold output at normal times.
Traditionally, while tens of billions of dollars of gold change hands every day in the financial markets, a much smaller amount tends to PHYSICALLY MOVE between vaults in trading hubs like Zurich, London and New York. Because of the Covid-19 pandemic, Swiss refineries closed and planes were grounded, traders were worried they wouldn’t be able to get gold to New York (normally loaded in commercial flights) in time to deliver against future contracts in the trading market.
This caused futures which typically trade in lock step with the London spot price to soar to a premium of as much as $70 an ounce. This record divergence in the price of spot gold vs. gold future contracts with gold future decoupling and trading far above spot prices. The resulting divergence in gold futures vs. spot CREATED AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ENTERPRISING TRADERS TO BUY GOLD SOMEWHERE IN THE WORLD (mostly in Australia where refineries are in full blast operation) AT THE SPOT PRICE, SELL FUTURES AND BENEFIT FROM THE DIFFERENCE BY SHIPPING THE METAL TO NEW YORK.
Indeed, the greed of man for money will defy all protocols even for a most serious pandemic like the Covid 19. By the way, the top seven nations/entity in the world on gold holdings in TONS as of May 2020 are as follows: USA – 8,133.5; Germany – 3,364.2; IMF (International Monetary Fund which is also inside US) – 2,814; Italy – 2,451; France – 2,436; Russia – 2,299; and China – 1,948.
HERD IMMUNITY is an idea that when a threshold proportion of a population is immune to a certain pathogen, this protects even non-immune individuals against the infection by limiting the spread. This thinking is purely theoretical as the Israelis have found out that they are not immune to the novel corona virus and must therefore continue to maintain Health Ministry directives such as wearing of face mask, social distancing and strict hygiene habits.
In view of the Covid-19 pandemic, Israel conducted the country’s first serological survey to help determine how many Israelis have had SARS-CoV 2 and may have developed anti bodies to protect them from contracting the virus again. The results show that only 2% to 3% has been infected, based on samples of 1,709 people from across the country. The goal of the study was to determine how far the people are from a level of seroprevalence that would suggest nearing to herd immunity. The recommendation was that the Israelis should continue all the measures because the people or the herd ARE NOT IMMUNE.
For herd immunity, at least 50 percent of the population needs to have developed the anti-bodies. According to Cohen of the Israel’s Epidemic Treatment Team, Israel has recorded 17,000 Covid patients. This means around 200,000 Israelis have actually had the novel virus, a percentage in line with most international estimates of between 1:8 and 1:10. Cohen said the study also showed that the virus was most prevalent among people aged 40-60 and among children 11-19.
More males were infected than females. Last week a team of researchers in Amsterdam published a study indicating that herd immunity to SARS CoV-2 may not even be possible due to the rapid loss of protective immunity. An alarming short duration of protective immunity to corona virus was found. The message to us Filipinos is that we should NOT be complacent because we are now at MGCQ (Modified General Community Quarantine) for the invisible but deadly enemy is just lurking around the corner and those positive patients declared healed can have it again.
We should not get tired nor be impatient with the various strict health measures bordering martial law that is being imposed to us by our government. Look at President Bolsonaro of Brazil who continues to flaunt health precautions by walking in a crowded street, buying a barbecue from a street vendor and where everybody including the president himself does not wear face mask and not practicing social distancing.
Brazil recently recorded yet another day of record high death due to Covid-19 of more than 1,200 and nearly 20,000 additional cases. More than half a million people in the country have confirmed infections and yet President Bolsonaro refused to act in accordance with the severity of the crisis. Jair Bolsonaro continues to flaunt precautions and uphold the economy of Brazil as sacrosanct and a priority over the lives of Brazilians. Again, the Filipinos are faring better than the Brazilians in the fight against Covid 19 because our government knows how to balance lives and livelihood and that it has the full support of a very patient citizenry.
Dr. Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist and in-charge of the country’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic said that Sweden’s decision NOT to impose an immediate strict lockdown in response to the pandemic has led to too many deaths. Although there was no lock down, Sweden relied on voluntary social distancing, banning gathering of more than 50 people and holding visits to elderly care homes. Unlike in the Philippines, Sweden just like any western countries tend to banish its elderly in nursing homes which suffered the highest death rate in the pandemic.
As a hind sight, Sweden believed that their response to Covid-19 was WRONG and should have focused on three things: 1) An early lock down; 2) Greater protection of care homes and, 3) Intensive testing and contact tracing in areas of outbreak. Comparatively we are doing great in the Philippines EXCEPT that we lack the money to purchase more testing machines and kits so that we cannot do intensive testing and individuals who wants to be tested on their own will have to pay a hefty amount of P6 to P8 thousand pesos.
Again, this writer would give a passing grade on the way our government have responded to the Covid-19 pandemic despite the very limited resources that it has. What we lack in money, we made up by early and strict lock down which the Filipino people wholeheartedly supported. Congratulations is in order especially for senior citizens (like this writer) who had to stretch our patience to the utmost because until now, we still cannot leave our houses! Indeed, patience is the greatest of all virtues.
