By Joseph B.A. Marzan
A Department of Health-Western Visayas Center for Health Development (DOH-WV CHD) official said Region 6 can enter the “new normal” phase despite pocket outbreaks of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) in some areas.
The city and province of Iloilo are currently under the Modified General Community Quarantine (MGCQ), the lowest community quarantine classification under the guidelines of the Inter-Agency Task Force on the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-MEID).
These community quarantine classifications were based on two factors currently used by the Department of Health (DOH):
-the average daily attack rate, which is the measure of the two-week trends in the number of cases; and
-the two-week growth rate, which is the comparison cases in the immediate past two weeks to the previous three weeks to one month.
Dr. Mary Jane Juanico, head of DOH-WV CHD’s Infectious Diseases Cluster Unit, told Aksyon Radyo Iloilo on Wednesday that attack rates are measured between scores of 1 to 7 and above, while the growth rate is measures in percentage.
Attack rate scores below 1 are considered to be between minimal and low-risk, while scores 1 to 7 are between low to medium-risk. Scores above 7 are considered high risk.
Growth rates between 0 to 200 percent are considered medium-risk and those above 200 percent are considered high-risk.
Juanico said that if both average daily attack and average growth rates are high, the recommendation is to place the area under the highest classification, which is the Enhanced Community Quarantine.
But this scenario is only more likely if hospitals and quarantine facilities in the area were not capable of handling surges in cases, since the rates are used more to help the areas lower their quarantine status.
“These measures are only recommended if the hospitals cannot handle the cases. These parameters are used to lower our cases, so to meet our minimal or new normal. There must be low-risk daily attack rate and low-risk growth rate,” Juanico said.
She suggested that the whole Western Visayas region could already exit the CQ classifications and shift towards a “new normal,” based on its two-week average on both daily attack and growth rates.
But she also warned that this does not mean that the region must relax the observance of minimum public health standards.
“We can say that for us in Western Visayas, we can move towards the new normal, but we cannot move to the new normal without going back to the measures we have in place. There is a tendency in the general public that when we say ‘new normal’, there would be no need to wear masks and not institute handwashing measures, but it is called the ‘new normal’ because before, we didn’t institute these preventive measures, but now, we are stricter in implementing in these minimum public health standards,” Juanico said.
MGCQ FOR ILOILO PROVINCE
Despite the “more relaxed” suggestion for the region, Juanico said that Iloilo province was still at “low to medium risk”, adding that it would be best for them to remain under MGCQ.
This was also in consideration of the more recent ECQ declarations in local government units (LGUs) in the province, particularly in San Enrique town and Passi City.
“For now, the province falls between low to medium risk, because on a daily basis, there are times that there are cases, there are times without cases. For the last few weeks that we have observed, we are at low risk, meaning we haven’t reached the minimal level. Our status can still be maintained at MGCQ,” she said.
She added that LGUs can appeal for a lower quarantine status with the IATF-MEID.
“We have to also recall, that in the specific guidance of these classifications, we previously had instances that if the LGU is confident that they can be lowered to a lower classification, they can file appeals, especially if they already want to reopen their economy. Of course, just because they are under a quarantine status, they cannot just unilaterally declare to open businesses,” she added.
But she believes that LGUs know that they cannot simply jump down to lower levels.
“I believe that our LGUs know that they cannot jump something that they cannot do, because the IATF resolution says that it is still subject to the appropriate regulatory agency. If our [LGUs] feel that they are still not ready because of the cases, because maybe of the threats of the UK variant that may be there, then they still have that power to decide not to open businesses or industries specific to their catchment areas. But for other areas where they feel meet the parameters, and they can say that their stand is that their health system can handle their cases, and with the proper guidance of our regulatory agencies, then I think they can safely open these businesses,” she said.
DOH-WV CHD data as of Feb. 17, 2021 indicated that the region has had a total of 24,137 cases, with 1,008 active cases, 22,400 recoveries, and 723 deaths.
