By Herbert Vego
IT seemed as if, without firing a single bullet, a big bully intimidated a small bully into giving up.
The scenario that flashed on our viewfinder was one of President Rodrigo Duterte breaking his silence on the tension in the West Philippine Sea during his televised cabinet meeting on Monday.
To our dismay, however, what he said was depressing, not de-stressing: “Maski na ilang balik natin dun walang mangyayari because we are not in the possession of the sea. Even if you go there and claim it, walang mangyayari. Kanila talaga eh, sa isip nila kanila.”
He was literally giving up our exclusive economic zone at the West Philippine Sea to China, affirming his earlier statements that a step in the other direction could lead to war, hence “bloody”.
Oh well, was he not merely reiterating what he had said in his 5th State of the Nation Address (SONA) on July 29, 2020?
“China is claiming it, we are claiming it,” he postulated on that occasion. “China has the arms. We do not have it. They are in possession of the property. So what can we do? We have to go to war, and I cannot afford it. Maybe some other President can, but I cannot. Inutil ako d’yan.”
A few days ago (April 12), however, he denied that his silence on 220 Chinese fishing vessels moored at the Julian Felipe reef (175 nautical miles off Batgaraza, Palawan) was an indication of inutility: “Will I last long in this ‘tang ‘na post if I’m inutile? Would the military allow me to govern if that’s how I run things — without me doing anything?”
That begs the question of whether it’s now a military junta propping up the Malacañang occupant.
Confusing; there had been occasions in 2018 when the President warned the military against upstaging him because his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping would not allow him to be removed from office.
Alas, his contradictory statements do not mesh with the initial reactions of Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin and Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana condemning China’s “creeping invasion”.
Hmm, well, at least we could attribute to consuelo de bobo the Philippine Navy’s belated response – deployment of three vessels to patrol the reef. As to whether these vessels have helped drive away the number of Chinese militia ships disguised as fishing vessels – reportedly now down to only six – it is doubtful.
What is truly intimidating is the presence thereat of U.S. carrier Theodore Roosevelt and its escort amphibious vessels. It reminds us of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s assurance that the U.S. would defend the Philippines if attacked.
Here comes a side question: Would US President Joe Biden allow the Philippines to become a “province” of China?
Indeed, Duterte’s suspension of the Visiting Forces Agreement with the U.S. reminds us of a speech he had delivered before a group of Filipino-Chinese businessmen on February 19, 2018, where he unabashedly joked, “Kung gusto ‘nyo, gawin ‘nyo na lang kaming province, parang Fujian.”
At the moment, not even the denial of Lorenzana could quell the rumor that he supports the “Viber” group of 400 retired and active military officers – including Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief of staff General Cirilito Sobejana and National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon — who are urging him to issue an ultimatum for the president to denounce China.
Believers of this rumor have uttered side comments. For one, “It’s a big insult that the President had said pinapakain niya kami ng pera in exchange for our loyalty.”
“This is fake news,” Lorenzana – a Philippine Military Academy (PMA) graduate, Class 1973 — wailed. “I am not, and will never be, a part of any such group – nor are the officials at the Department of National Defense, many of whom are also retired military officers.”
Unfortunately for the Defense chief, that statement could not hold water in view of the strongman’s impending exit at the end of his elective term in June 2022.
In a post-Duterte era, the Americans would enforce its dormant “EDCA Revolution.” EDCA is the acronym for the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement entered into by then US President Barack Obama and then Philippine President Benigno Simeon Aquino III in Malacañang on April 28, 2014.
The EDCA is an addendum to the Mutual Defense Treaty between the Philippines and the United States signed on August 30, 1951 in Washington, DC.
In his speech on EDCA, Obama stressed, “Our goal is not to counter China. Our goal is not to contain China. Our goal is to make sure international rules and norms are respected and that includes in the area of international disputes.”
He implied that the “iron-clad” agreement would compel his country to fight with us and for us in the event that the increasingly assertive China attacks us over gas-rich Scarborough Shoal, Spratlys, Thomas Shoal, Julian Felipe Reef and other disputed territories.
In fact, China has taken effective control of Scarborough Shoal, which used to be a rich fishing ground for Filipino fishermen.
It is now unthinkable for the post-Duterte Philippines to declare “sovereignty” without active collaboration with our old democratic USA over autocratic China.
