By Artchil B. Fernandez
Less than eight months from now the rule of Du30 will end. The sunset of a populist autocrat is finally here. Like other despots in history at the end of their rule, the twilight of this populist thug appears to be unpleasant if not troubled. Data from the latest Social Weather Station (SWS) and Pulse Asia surveys bear this out.
SWS made public three sets of data on the satisfaction rating of Du30 taken from its last three consecutive surveys. The November 21-25, 2020 survey showed Du30’s net satisfaction rating was +79 percent. Polling conducted between April 28 and May 2, 2021 reveals that Du30’s net satisfaction went down to +65 percent. Du30’s satisfaction rating further dipped to +62 percent in the June 23-26, 2021 survey. On the whole, the satisfaction rating of Du30 is still high but it is falling. The drop of 17 points as shown by the three surveys is huge and is statistically significant.
A closer examination of the data gives interesting information from the ground. The net satisfaction rating of Du30 in the three surveys is a combination of those who said they were “very satisfied” and “somewhat satisfied” with Du30’s performance. The “somewhat satisfied” while favorable is an ambivalent response, not firm. Only the “very satisfied” answer can be taken as an indicator of solid satisfaction.
In the November 21-25, 2020 survey 51 percent said they were “very satisfied” with Du30’s performance. The April 20 to May 2, 2021 and the June 23-26, 2021 surveys saw an enormous drop of those who said they were “very satisfied” with Du30’s performance, 34 percent respectively. From a majority, only a third of Filipinos are recently “very satisfied “with Du30’s performance as president. This is a red flag to Du30 and if this figure does not improve but further slides in the coming polls, this does not bode well for him with the 2022 election just around the corner.
The June 23-26, 2021 survey also gave more bad news to Du30. This survey doused his vice-presidential aspiration with 60 percent saying it violates the spirit of the Constitution. Only 39 percent wanted Du30 to run for vice president. Du30 cited this survey when he withdrew his plan to run for vice president claiming he is heeding the voice of Filipinos on the issue.
Pulse Asia survey conducted on September 6-11, 2021 reveals the approval rating of the Du30 administration in handling important national issues considerably declined. In the area of fighting graft and corruption, approval rating went down from 64 percent in its June survey to 52 percent in the September survey. The approval rating in the handling of Covid-19 pandemic went down to 59 percent from the previous 65 percent. In the job creation, the approval rating decreased from 54 percent to 49 percent.
The disapproval rating of the Du30 administration in the Pulse Asia survey on crucial national issues also increased. Disapproval rating in the fight against graft and corruption increased from 12 percent in the June survey to 22 percent in the September survey. Disapproval rating of the administration considerably jumped in the following areas: initiatives to reduce poverty from 22 to 32 percent; controlling the spread of Covid-19 from 9 to 17 percent; controlling inflation from 30 to 36 percent; and raising workers’ pay from 16 to 21 percent.
If the disapproval ratings of the Du30 administration in handling critical national issues further increase in the coming surveys, this will seriously affect the chances of its presidential and vice-presidential candidates. The voters will hold them into account for the failures of the current administration. As the 2022 election nears and should the disapproval ratings of the administration worsen, its bets will be in a difficult predicament.
The pulse on the ground is not the only indicator that the sunset of Du30 and his administration is troubled at the very least. Its biggest weakness so far has been exposed during the filing of certificates of candidacy for national and local polls. As of this writing, the ruling party is still in search for a presidential bet as its original nominee, Bong Go slid to the vice presidency to cover the hasty retreat of his principal from the race. PDP-Laban is the ruling party yet instead of being the most prepared and ready among the parties, it is in shambles so far filling in only one slot, the vice presidency.
Fielding a complete slate – president, vice president and full senatorial slate during the period of the filing of certificates of candidacy is the most opportune time for the ruling PDP-Laban (Cusi wing) to demonstrate its strength. This it failed to do.
The inability of the ruling party to come up with a complete slate during the period of the filing of certificates of candidacy exposed the utter failure of the theatrics Du30 employed in 2016. The tactic of keeping your friends and foe guessing until the last minute works only when it is well concealed. The Du30 drama serye – the daughter running or not for president, has lost its magic causing the ruling party to lose the initiative and the fragmentation of the ruling bloc. Each group went on its own.
Bongbong Marcos filing his candidacy without the Dutertes is the strongest signal they lost the momentum. The line has been drawn – either they join and support Marcos or fight him in the election. In short, Marcos is telling the Dutertes to capitulate to him by backing his presidential run or battle with him in 2022. This is a humiliating imposition and should the Dutertes accept with either Bong Go or Sara Duterte playing second fiddle to Bongbong Marcos it signifies that not only Du30 is a lame duck but he has also lost his clout and control of the situation.
Which bitter pill he will swallow – be a Marcos acolyte or his election foe, the sunset of Du30 is unpalatable to him. Even the best-laid plan of mice and men goes awry.
