By Joseph B.A. Marzan
Iloilo Governor Arthur Defensor Jr. on Friday expressed confidence over the continuing downtrend of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the province, saying it may de-escalate to the “least restrictive” Modified General Community Quarantine (MGCQ) in November 2022.
In his weekly press conference, Defensor cited the province’s latest COVID-19 data, which include a 2-Week Growth Rate (2WGR) of -54 percent and an Average Daily Attack Rate (ADAR) of about 3.3.
The 2WGR refers to the percentage rate of growth in new COVID-19 cases, while the ADAR refers to the number of new cases per 100,000 in an area. Both are measured in 14-day periods.
Based on these figures, Defensor said that they may expect to slide down to an MGCQ status.
The province was previously under MGCQ from July 1, 2021 to July 15, 2021 upon recommendation of the national Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-MEID).
Defensor also cited the province’s health care utilization rate, or the percentage rate of COVID-19 dedicated beds and mechanical ventilators used, which he says is around 49 percent as of this writing.
“When you look at our quarantine classification based on our ADAR and [2WGR], it’s really low MGCQ. We can reasonably expect a lower level of community quarantine,” he said.
But the governor cautioned that he would use the lowering rates as an opportunity to increase the province’s defense system against another COVID surge.
Defensor had already previously warned that transmission of the disease may surge again, possibly in January, calling it “the new flu”.
“We will take advantage of this lull to prepare. What we are expecting, even with the vaccination, that there is a possibility that January of 2022, where if there is people circulation rises in December because of the holidays, and because of the lowering of the [CQ regime], and loosening up of the protocols, we may have a surge and January,” he said.
Part of their preparation, he said, was the completion of the Critical Care Unit at the Iloilo Provincial Hospital in Pototan this year, as well as the 12 district hospitals across the province afterwards.
The governor also stated that he would wait for the national government’s go signal before he would implement the Alert Level system, which was recently implemented by the national government in select places.
