By Herbert Vego
THE political future of Vice President Sara Duterte hinges on the May 12, 2025 senatorial election. It’s because the senators will be voting either to acquit or convict her in their role as judges of the impeachment court.
It will take two-thirds of the Senate – meaning 16 senators – to remove the vice-president from office and disqualify her from further occupying a government position. Will she survive the impeachment trial?
Half or 12 of the Senate’s 24 seats will be up for grabs on May 12.
To analyze the matter, let us first eliminate four incumbent senators from the equation — Nancy Binay, Koko Pimentel, Grace Poe and Cynthia Villar — because they are “graduating” and therefore will not be among the senator-judges who would sit in the impeachment trial in July 2025.
The 11 other incumbent senators will remain in office until 2028. They are Francis Escudero, Jinggoy Estrada, JV Ejercito, Alan Cayetano, Win Gatchalian, Mark Villar, Migz Zubiri, Risa Hontiveros, Loren Legarda, Robin Padilla, and Ramon Tulfo.
There are six re-electionists in the persons of Bong Go, Bato de la Rosa, Bong Revilla, Pia Cayetano, Lito Lapid and Imee Marcos.
Five former senators are also running: Ping Lacson, Tito Sotto, Manny Pacquiao, Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan.
Running for senators, too, are Benhur Abalos, Abby Binay, Arlene Brosas, France Castro, Camille Villar, Teddy Casiño, Leody de Guzman, Luke Espiritu, Erwin Tulfo, Ben Tulfo, Raul Lambino, Rodante Marcoleta, Sonny Matula, Heidi Mendoza, Apollo Quiboloy, Willie Revillame, Vic Rodriguez, plus a few lesser-known ones who would complete the list of 65 senatorial wannabes.
Since our discussion revolves around the chances of VP Sara surviving the impeachment trial, she will need at least nine senator-judges to acquit her. It looks easier than having 16 to convict her.
To reiterate, there are 11 incumbents who will surely remain until 2028, namely Escudero, Estrada, Ejercito, Alan Cayetano, Gatchalian, Mark Villar, Zubiri, Hontiveros, Legarda, Robin Padilla, and Ramon Tulfo.
My personal opinion is that six of them will acquit Sara. Three more from the incoming senators will keep her out of harm’s way.
Three of the six re-electionists – Imee Marcos, Bong Go and Bato Dela Rosa — are predictably pro-Sara, and so the number 9 could be a walk in the park for Inday Sara.
Therefore, even if all ten senatorial candidates running under President Marcos’ Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas make it to the “magic 12,” it will not reverse the equation in favor of the impeached vice-president.
Sara could even steal from the Alyansa bets. For instance, it is no secret that Cayetano, Tulfo, Sotto, Lapid and Binay are among her good friends.
Thus, if you care for my two cents’ worth, please ignore the paid surveys and vote for ideal alternatives like Abalos, Brosas, Castro, Casiño, De Guzman, Espiritu, Matula, and Mendoza.
I find it mind-boggling that Bong Go and Bato rank 1st and 3rd in the surveys, since, aside from former President Rodrigo Duterte, they are also among those implicated by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in crimes against humanity.
That is why, in my previous column, I expressed the suspicion that they are among the beneficiaries of “Chinese interference” alluded to by re-electionist Senator Francis Tolentino, who is not in the surveys’ “magic 12”.
And the ultimate goal is to acquit the VP in the Senate’s impeachment trial in July.
Believe me, or not.
