By Francis Allan L. Angelo
The Philippines experienced prolonged extreme heat between December 2024 and February 2025, with Manila among the megacities significantly affected by human-caused climate change, according to a new Climate Central analysis.
The report, People Exposed to Climate Change: December 2024-February 2025, found that Manila endured 69 days of temperatures classified at Climate Shift Index (CSI) level 2 or higher.
This means that for more than two-thirds of the season, the city’s temperatures were at least twice as likely to occur due to human-induced climate change compared to a world without it.
Manila was one of 11 megacities worldwide to experience such conditions, joining Jakarta, Indonesia, and Lagos, Nigeria, in facing extreme heat for extended periods.
Heat Exposure in the Philippines
The seasonal temperature anomaly in Manila during the three-month period was 0.4 degrees Celsius. This placed the Philippine capital among the cities where climate change had a substantial influence on daily temperatures.
“Climate change is not a distant threat but a present reality to millions,” said Kristina Dahl, vice president of science at Climate Central.
“The increasing frequency and severity of heat events around the world reveal a dangerous pattern of heat exposure that will only worsen if the burning of fossil fuel continues.”
The report highlights that at least 1.8 billion people worldwide—22% of the global population—experienced climate-influenced temperatures every day from December 1, 2024, to February 28, 2025.
On February 28 alone, exposure peaked, with 3 billion people, or 37% of the global population, facing heightened temperatures.
Health and Safety Risks
Prolonged exposure to extreme heat poses serious health risks, particularly for vulnerable populations such as children, the elderly, and individuals with pre-existing conditions.
The report defines a “risky heat day” as one where temperatures exceed 90% of historical local records from 1991-2020.
According to Climate Central, the average person globally experienced six such days during the period, with climate change contributing five of those.
Nearly 394 million people were exposed to 30 or more days of risky heat added by climate change, with the majority—74%—residing in Africa.
Urban centers, particularly in highly populated megacities like Manila, face additional challenges as heat is intensified by concrete structures, limited green spaces, and high population density.
Global Cities Under Pressure
Out of 940 cities analyzed, 287 had residents experiencing climate-driven heat for at least 30 days. Eleven megacities, home to over 210 million people, endured these conditions, highlighting the growing burden of extreme heat in urban environments.
Cities such as Saint-Denis, Reunion; Freetown, Sierra Leone; and Caracas and Barquisimeto, Venezuela, experienced 90 days at CSI level 2 or higher—the maximum recorded in the study.
Manila, Jakarta, and Tamil Nadu, India, also ranked among the megacities heavily impacted by climate change-influenced heat during this period.
The Climate Shift Index and Data Analysis
The Climate Shift Index (CSI), developed by Climate Central, quantifies the influence of climate change on daily temperatures.
A CSI level of 2 means that a specific temperature is at least twice as likely to occur due to human-caused climate change.
The report’s findings are based on daily average temperatures and ECMWF ERA5 data from December 1, 2024, to February 28, 2025.
Temperature anomalies were calculated relative to the 1991-2020 average.
Heat Trends Across Continents
In half of the 220 analyzed countries, the average person experienced daily temperatures with a strong influence of climate change for at least one-third of the season.
Approximately 84% of South America’s population and 69% of Africa’s population experienced 30 or more days of climate-driven heat.
Asia, including the Philippines, also recorded significant climate influence on temperatures, with cities like Jakarta and Manila affected for long periods.
In the United States, 45% of cities analyzed had normal or warmer-than-normal temperatures, with several cities in the western regions experiencing three weeks or more of CSI level 2 conditions.
Climate Central is a non-advocacy, non-profit science and news organization providing
authoritative information to help the public and policymakers make sound decisions about
climate and energy.
