By Richard Javad Heydarian
“We believe that the world is big enough for both of our countries to thrive,” declared US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the conclusion of her recent high-profile to Beijing.
But while Yellen’s visit may have injected a semblance of normality into the two sides’ economic diplomacy, geopolitical tensions are still running high in the hotly contested South China Sea.
The Philippines is increasingly at the center of that superpower contest as China appears to be responding aggressively to enhanced US-Philippine defense relations under the Ferdinand Marcos Jr administration.
Crucially, those enhanced ties will allow US rotational forces access to Philippine bases geographically close to Taiwan, potentially giving the US a southern flank in any Chinese invasion of the self-governing democratic island.
Over the weekend, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) authorities reported that nearly 50 “Chinese maritime militia” ships have been “swarming” Iroquois Reef, which is occupied and claimed by Manila.
Back in 2021, even the Beijing-friendly Duterte administration was forced to file multiple diplomatic protests due to the “continued presence of Chinese fishing vessels in [the] vicinity of Iroquois Reef.” Back then, hundreds of Chinese militia vessels also swarmed other Philippine-claimed land features, most notably the Whitsun Reef.
The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), which says it first detected the latest Chinese militia buildup around the Iroquois Reef during an aerial patrol, also reported the presence of three Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) ships and two People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) vessels at the Sabina Shoal, another land feature that falls within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea.
Quietly but suddenly, the Philippines is now confronting the buildup of both Chinese conventional and paramilitary forces near or in its claimed territories in the Spratly group of islands.
“During multiple flights over Iroquois Reef in the past week, pilots observed an alarming presence of Chinese fishing vessels. The swarming of Chinese fishing vessels there is quite visible from the air,” AFP spokesman Edgard Abogado said in a statement.
Anticipating standard denials from Chinese authorities who often portray Chinese militia vessels as harmless “fishing boats”, the AFP made it clear that the Chinese fishing vessels were “anchored in groups of five to seven” without any trace of “fishing activities.”
The PCG also accused a Chinese patrol vessel of engaging in what it called a “very dangerous” maneuver by blocking two of its boats from entering the Second Thomas Shoal, which is occupied by Philippine marines.
The incident reportedly involved the PCG vessels BRP Malabrigo and BRP Malapascua during a supply ship escort mission on June 30.
Buoyed by a larger budget and personnel and emboldened by expanding cooperation with the US and other like-minded powers, the PCG is stepping up its game in response.
“I would like to assure you that the Philippine Coast Guard will also take measures to deploy our vessels in order to drive away the Chinese maritime militia from that area,” Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesperson Jay Tarriela told the media.
Tarriela warned that China’s deployment of large numbers of militia vessels was part of a well-worn playbook, whereby the occupation of contested features often begins with “swarm[ing] the area for a very long period of time. If you fail to notice them, they will increase their number eventually [until they occupy the area].”
Over the past year, the PCG has adopted a proactive public diplomacy campaign whereby it consistently and publicly spotlights China’s aggressive actions in adjacent waters in order to galvanize domestic and international support.
“Once we publicize these events, the international community condemns them and various embassies criticize such activities of China. When we follow up with the deployment of our government assets, they leave immediately,” Tarriela claimed.
Indeed, international support has been building for the Philippines ahead of the seventh anniversary of its landmark arbitration award vis-à-vis China at The Hague in 2016. The ruling, based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), rejected China’s nine-dash line expansive claims across the South China Sea.
In an official statement, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reached out to his new Philippine counterpart, Gilberto Teodoro, in order to show solidarity in face of what he referred to as China’s “coercive and risky” behavior.
The US defense chief, who welcomed President Marcos Jr to the Pentagon in May, underscored his country’s “ironclad” commitment to defend the Philippines in the event of armed conflict in the South China Sea as outlined under the two sides’ 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT).
In recent months, the Pentagon has secured two major deals with its Southeast Asian ally, namely an expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), granting access to US forces across a whole host of strategically-located sites, as well as new defense guidelines under the MDT, which expands bilateral security cooperation in all areas of modern warfare.
Other key allies are making their presence felt. Just days after historic French-Philippine naval exercises in the South China Sea, the Embassy of France in Manila called for “respect for international law and the resolution of disputes through dialogue.”
“We are resolutely opposed to any use of force or threat to do so. We recall, in this regard, the arbitration award rendered under UNCLOS on the 12th of July 2016,” the embassy said in a statement.
The Philippines also secured another key major endorsement from India, which under its “non-aligned” foreign policy tradition has generally been “neutral” in its positioning on sensitive international issues such as the South China Sea disputes.
However, following their most recent bilateral strategic dialogue, the two countries underscored their commitment to double down on defense cooperation.
In a joint statement issued after a meeting between Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in New Delhi last week, the two emerging partners “underlined the need for peaceful settlement of disputes and for adherence to international law, especially the UNCLOS and the 2016 Arbitral Award on the South China Sea in this regard.”
It marked the first time that India directly supported an arbitration case decision, according to local media reports. Incensed by growing international support for Manila, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned against interference by any “third party.”
“We have [the] ability to handle it well but have to stay high-alert that South China Sea might be turned into the sea of war by the third party,” Zhou Li, a MOFA information department councilor, said in a statement over Twitter.
Li insisted that bilateral negotiations were “the only way to resolve disputes” and to ensure the South China Sea “become[s] the sea of peace, friendship and cooperation.”
“China has always resolved its disputes through negotiations,” the Chinese foreign ministry official said while rejecting “internationalization” of the South China Sea disputes in favor of “set[ting] up bilateral channels of communication to address the disputes.”
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on Twitter at @Richeydarian
